Every day the newspapers are full of depressing news on the World Front
UK inflation at decade high
High Unemployment in the US
600% rise in Petrol Prices in Germany hurting its citizens
Large parts of China still shut down due to Covid effect
The talk of Recession around the World is getting louder and louder each passing day as the World deals with Gas Supply issues, double-digit inflation, etc
How is our India placed?
Let’s do a reality check
From the data we are having, it sure seems like India does not know what recession means!
Why do we say so?
Let’s deep dive.
Yes... The dollar is at an all-time high
but, in reality, India is actually the BEST PERFORMING currency in the World in relation to the Dollar
The Japanese Yen fell by 22%
Euro fell by 13%
and the Indian Rupee has fallen by 6%
Since the Dollar is the de-facto currency across the World even now...its strength is inevitable (at least in the near future). The dollar's share in World exports is still a huge 40%!!
Russia-Ukraine has NOT resulted in any damage to Oil (Petrol) prices to the layman
a) Due to shrewd Political moves by Modi Govt
b) India gradually moving more and move towards non-oil dependency like Solar, Nuclear, Hydro, etc
c) India starting to deal with non-Dollar payments which is helping us to cushion the Dollar rise
India recently overtook Britain to become World's 5th largest economy. And only 10 years back, India was not even in the Top 10 economies.
IMF projects India to be the FASTEST growing economy in the World for the next 2 years.
But you would say, I am a layman, I don’t understand this GDP, etc.
LET'S MAKE IT SIMPLE with a couple of recent Real Data:
1. During the just concluded Deepawali festival, more than Rs.1.5 lakh crores of GOLD were bought by the Indian Middle Class. Gold sales were 35% more than last year. Delhi alone bought 25,000 crores of Gold!
2. The Waiting period for Cars in India has gone up to nearly 8 months as there are nearly 10 lakh customers who have booked Cars and SUVs. There was a 92% jump in sales of Cars (nearly DOUBLE of last year)
3. The White Goods Sales (Washing Machines, Fridges, etc) saw a 30% jump in the Deepawali festival
4. Crude Oil, Palm Oil and other commodity prices are coming down in recent weeks helping us to purchase at LOWER prices.
5. The Unemployment rate has fallen to its LOWEST level in more than 4 years
6. Sale of Flats/Apartments hit a 9-year at 1,58,700 plus in top 8 cities of India.
7. India has now 119 Arabpatis (Billionaires) compared to just 9 in 2000.
OXFAM REPORT SAYS INDIA IS SEEING 70 NEW CROREPATIS EVERY SINGLE DAY!!!
(That’s why I say, Crorepati ka Zamana Gaya.
Think of becoming an Arabpati or at least Drudpati )
Crorepati is 1 crore
Drudpati is 10 crores
Arabpati is 100 crores
The only outcome of the above data points which we shared shows only 1 thing...
there is MONEY with Indians
And when you have money, you spend.
And why do you have money... because your income is good, there is good business happening all around
When good business is happening all around, it clearly means there is no recession! Simple!!
WHY IS THIS BULLISHNESS HAPPENING IN INDIA?
1. India is still largely rural-dependent. 66% of India still lives in non-urban
And the good rainfall continuously for the last 4 years has helped the Indian farmers. In fact, e-commerce (Amazon, Flipkart, Meesho) saw nearly 60% of their orders coming from Tier-4 places
had seen many holdings back their cash due to fear but now they are ready to
spend and spend at a higher volume and higher speed to make up for the lost
time. It’s like Revenge! In fact, it’s
called Revenge Travelling, Revenge Spending. The pent-up demand, and the pent-up dreams are
all getting realised by spending and spending more.
In fact, earlier if a family was targeting an Rs.20,000 Washing Machine…now they are wanting to get a bigger, better one and don’t shy away from spending to get a quality one
This is resulting in a cycle of high spending leading to higher production which in turn leads to higher demand for raw materials, and labour, which again, in turn, leads to higher income
3. The salaries are going up and disposable income has seen a rise. This is leading to higher spending. In fact, India’s 200 million plus middle class and the upper middle class are growing at 15% annually.
5. India has
leapfrogged 2 generations ahead by the simple concept of UPI which even a
layman is using now.
Even a fruit vendor, coconut vendor, tea wala everyone is getting paid in UPI.
leading to higher transparency.
In fact, this is leading to higher GST collections and Income Tax collections helping Govt to spend more on Infra projects like Roads, etc
(In fact, my roadside Iron wala who has never paid Income Tax life was forced to pay Rs.35,000 in taxes as now 99% of his service is getting paid in UPI which gets directly credited to Bank which is 100% tracked)
So, in short,
If the World is dirty laundry, India is wearing the BEST Shirt!!
All the Best,
Author : Dont Retire Rich and WOW-WealthOfWisdom
All the best,