GOODFUNDSADVISOR: May 2025

Sunday, 25 May 2025

INDIA's GDP BEAT JAPAN BUT MARKETS ARE EXPENSIVE SO HERE'S WHAT YOU SHOULD DO

Congratulation friends, India has overtaken Japan to become 4th Largest economy in the World!

But hold on to your celebrations. Before you start investing BIG into Indian Equities, better have a close look at the market valuations.

And also question yourself, has India grown so fast to beat Japan or there are different factors in play?
Lets explore....

Firstly we need to understand that Japan has been in stagflation for so many years now.

In fact, Japan's GDP is now $4.0 trillion (India is $4.2 trillion) but do you know what was Japan's GDP in 2010?

It was $6 trillion!!

So Japan has NOT GROWN in the last 15 years in true sense (and this is what is called stagflation).

MARKET VALUATIONS RIGHT NOW:

Let’s look at the Stock Markets now and then come back to talk about GDP

Today as on 25th May 2025.

India's Market Cap to GDP is 122%

The Peak (in September 2024) was 147.5%

and the 10-year average is 94% (below 100)

The Sensex Price to Book Ratio is bound to scare you.

It’s currently at 4.2 whereas the 10 year average is 3.2

And another negative data for you.

The Buffet Indicator which compares Market Cap to GDP to estimate expected Market returns is suggesting a very modest expected returns of only 5.9%

Read DONT RETIRE RICH . https://amzn.to/3cHUM6M/

SO, WHAT SHOULD YOU AS INVESTOR SHOULD DO???

Firstly, understand the BIGGEST Point in India's favour.
Its the Demographics!

Japan was seeing a declining youth population, and the stagflation was almost inevitable

Whereas India is youthful and dynamic — nearly 50% of India’s population is below 25 years, and about 65% are under 35 years of age. These young demographic fuels consumption, innovation, and sustained economic growth.

Across the World, India is the ONLY Major Economy showing consistent, solid, consistent, strong growth.

This is what every single investor look out for, the VISIBILITY OF EARNINGS, and the country's future growth potential thus boosting confidence amongst investors.

Hence while current valuations are bound to create apprehension, any and every correction / dip could be looked at adding more into Equities.

A more likely scenario could be that there may be a Time correction rather than a price correction.

But wise investors like you should consider doing more of STPs (Systematic Transfer Plans) into Equities besides the evergreen SIPs

Remember,

Opportunities keep coming wearing new disguises and come in new shapes. And most importantly, Markets may pause. But India's story will not!

Keep your focus on long-term wealth. Stay consistent. Be patient.

Thank you and all the very best,

Srikanth Matrubai

AMFI REGISTERED MUTUAL FUND DISTRIBUTOR

REBALANCE VOLATILITY CERTIFIED COACH

Srikanth Matrubai, Author of the Amazon Best Seller DON'T RETIRE RICH

You are strongly encouraged to consult your financial planner before making any decision regarding this investment. The views expressed here are the author's personal views and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to invest/avoid.

Srikanth Matrubai Author of the Amazon Best Seller DON'T RETIRE RICH

Do read the book and give your valuable feedback and request you to post positive comments on Amazon. https://amzn.to/3cHUM6M/

You can purchase the book on Amazon and Flipkart

For the best of ideas on where to invest to create Mountains of Wealth

join my TELEGRAM channel

WEALTH ARCHITECT
https://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAELl4KUnaJzi-JJlDg/

Friday, 9 May 2025

MARETS & MISSILES. FEAR TRIGGERS A DIP, PATIENCE DELIVERS A FORTUNE

BORDER TENSION... WAR FEARS... PANIC IN THE MARKETS...

Yes, it’s serious. Yes, it’s emotional.

The headlines scream. The borders heat up. And suddenly, your portfolio starts looking like a thermometer during a fever — red and rising anxiety.
BUT... should you let FEAR drive your financial decisions?

A BIG NO!!!

Before you press the SELL button, just PAUSE... BREATHE... and lets LOOK AT HISTORY.

WHAT HAPPENS TO MARKETS IN WARTIME?

Every time there’s a geopolitical crisis — investors PANIC, media SHOUTS, and the markets DIP...

But then what?

MARKETS BOUNCE BACK STRONGER!!!

Let’s talk FACTS, not FEARS:

INDIAN MARKET BEHAVIOUR DURING CONFLICTS:

🔸 KARGIL WAR (1999) – There was an inital Drop but within 3 months, the markets gained UP 12% and within 1 year... 30% UP!!!!!!
🔸 SURGICAL STRIKES (2016) – Market fell intraday, but RECOVERED within hours, and the Nifty went on to rally over 15% in the next 6 months.
🔸 PULWAMA & BALAKOT (2019) – Initially there was fear and volatility which lasted a week… But from February to June 2019, Nifty moved up more than 8%, hitting fresh highs. 4 months was all it took for the fear to go away and scale highs.
🔸 MUMBAI ATTACKS (2008) – AT this time already there was a global meltdown due to Lehmann Brothers issue leading to Global recession, but yet again... same story repeated... MARKETS REBOUNDED in months gaining more than 81% in 1 year!

✅ Except for the 2001 Parliament attack, the Indian market has NEVER fallen more than 2% during any war or tension!

✅ AVERAGE CORRECTION = JUST 7%
✅ MEDIAN CORRECTION = ONLY 3%

Even in WORST-CASE scenarios, experts believe NIFTY won’t fall beyond 5–10%!

GLOBAL EVENTS? SAME STORY!

This is India story but what about the Rest of the World. Let’s look at how the WORLD responded:

🔹 9/11 ATTACK
– Dow Jones dropped -16%, but bounced back +30% in 6 months

🔹 IRAQ-KUWAIT WAR
– Initially fell -13.3%, then gained +16.3% in 6 months

🔹 KOREAN WAR
– Down -12%, up +19% in 6 months

🔹 COVID CRASH (MARCH 2020)
– Markets crashed globally…Markets melted in panic.
– But within 1 year.. by MARCH 2021, NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS!!

Every time: fear faded. Wealth stayed.

PATTERN IS CLEAR: FEAR IS TEMPORARY. GROWTH IS PERMANENT.

SO, WHAT SHOULD YOU DO NOW?

This is NOT the time to RUN AWAY.
This is the time to quietly BUILD!

✔️ CONTINUE YOUR SIPS — This is when rupee cost averaging gives you MAXIMUM benefit!
✔️ DEPLOY LUMPSUM — NAVs are low. Grab QUALITY at a DISCOUNT!
✔️ BUILD NEW PORTFOLIOS — This is the time to POSITION FOR LONG-TERM GROWTH!
✔️ DON’T PANIC SELL — Remember: PANIC NEVER MADE ANYONE WEALTHY!

And if you don’t have cash?

NO WORRIES. Just hold your quality stocks quietly. That silence will speak loudly in your returns over the next 12–18 months.

Just SIT TIGHT.
HOLD your QUALITY stocks… SILENTLY.
That Silence will SPEAK loudly through your returns over the next 12-18 months.

A Gentle Reminder from the Markets

The market has a message. It’s not loud, but it’s wise:

“I TEST YOU with fear... and I REWARD YOU with fortune!”

You are NOT investing for the next 3 weeks...
You are investing for the next 3 DECADES!!!

So DON’T let short-term noise distract you from long-term wealth.

FINAL WORDS

STAY CALM
STAY WISE
STAY INVESTED

Because in every crisis...
WEALTH CHANGES HANDS — from the PANICKED to the PREPARED!!!

Because the best portfolios are built when the worst news is doing the rounds.

Regards,